How Does Dealer Hits Soft 17 Affect Expected Loss?
Short Answer
When the dealer hits soft 17 instead of standing, the house edge increases by approximately 0.22 percentage points. For a $25 bet at 60 hands per hour, that adds about $3.30 per hour in expected losses, or roughly $330 over 100 hours of play. The rule helps the house because the dealer more often improves to 18–21.
By The Numbers
Expected Loss Added by Dealer Hits Soft 17
| Bet Size | Per Hand | Per Hour (60 hands) | Per 100 Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $0.022 | $1.32 | $132 |
| $25 | $0.055 | $3.30 | $330 |
| $50 | $0.11 | $6.60 | $660 |
| $100 | $0.22 | $13.20 | $1,320 |
Formula
Extra expected loss = bet × 0.0022 × number of hands
For $25 over 60 hands: $25 × 0.0022 × 60 = $3.30/hour.
Why It Hurts the Player
A soft 17 (e.g., A-6) cannot bust on one hit. When the dealer is forced to hit, they more often land on 18–21 and beat player hands. The extra busts do not offset the improved hands, netting ~0.22% to the house.
Detailed Explanation
What changes: "Dealer hits soft 17" (often written H17) means the dealer must draw to hands like A-6. "Dealer stands on soft 17" (S17) means they stop. H17 is worse for the player.
The mechanism: A soft 17 cannot bust on a single draw (the ace can revert to a 1). Hitting it turns some 17s into 18, 19, 20, or 21 — hands that beat more player totals. Although the dealer also busts more often, the improved hands outweigh the busts, adding about 0.22% to the house edge.
How it stacks with other rules: H17 rarely appears alone. Combined with 6:5 payout and many decks, a table's edge can exceed 2%. A table with S17, 3:2 payout, and few decks can be under 0.3% with perfect basic strategy.
Practical impact: The cost is small per hand but compounds steadily. A $25 player logging 100 hours at an H17 table gives back about $330 they would have kept at an S17 table — purely from one rule line.
Limitations & Context
- •The 0.22% figure is a long-run average under perfect basic strategy
- •Actual impact varies slightly with deck count and other interacting rules
- •Short sessions will not reflect the added cost
- •The rule does not change variance dramatically, so streaks still occur
- •This is expected-loss impact only — it does not make the game beatable